The AXA Foresight Report '2040 - Exploring society's future challenges' therefore outlines, based on current trends, a number of potential scenarios for the next twenty years in the field of climate, socio-economics and health, ranging from the plausible to highly likely. This is what you should take into account as a company.

Climate: from business as usual to a new economy

There is a growing willingness to reduce the human impact on climate change. Whether we move towards a greener future quickly enough will depend on two factors, namely international cooperation and economic growth. Three possible scenarios are emerging for 2040. The scenario of sustainable growth, where economic progress goes hand in hand with large-scale investments in new, green technologies. Or the scenario of "business as usual", where international climate cooperation fails and countries focus on their own economic growth. The third scenario is that of the donut economy, with a world that sees the rat race towards economic growth as harmful, resolutely adopts a new economic model that respects the limits of our natural resources and takes radical action to protect the environment.

Socio-economics: from political malaise to radical change

Socio-economic inequality has increased in recent decades. This has sparked protests all over the world for equal rights and a redistribution of resources. What direction will this take in twenty years? Again, three scenarios could be envisaged. One possibility is that we are heading for a political failure in which the socio-economic progress of recent years will be cancelled out, the political tension between countries increases and there is precious little cooperation left. Alternatively, the political world will be aware of the rising tensions, but will prove unable to do anything about it. As a result, confidence in politics will continue to crumble. Finally, the third scenario is that we will see radical change: by 2040, the systemic risks associated with the instability of the 2020s will have led to a stronger commitment from the public and private sectors and to profound political and institutional change.

Health: from tech care to "patients first"

Since the 1970s, health care has improved by leaps and bounds. Technology has expanded treatment options, reduced costs and made health care more accessible. But will tech-based health care continue to grow? And will people trust the health care system enough to share personal data or follow lifestyle advice? These factors will determine which of the following three future scenarios will become reality. Perhaps by 2040, people will have a total faith in technology and it will have almost completely taken over health care. People-to-people care will fade into the background while the focus is on efficiency and prevention. It could also be that confidence in the technology suffers a decline. That it will more often be seen as a threat and as the cause of alienation. Ethical questions will also become priorities in this scenario. In a third scenario, technology will have significantly improved access to and efficiency in healthcare by 2040, but the patient-physician relationship will remain strong. Health care will have become a story of collaboration ‒ think of health hubs that, like a flight control centre, collect real-time health data from patients in order to identify potential problems at an early stage. Finally, in this third scenario, patients will take more control over their own health.

Underlying trends to consider

In addition to the main trends emerging in the areas of climate, socio-economics and health care, a number of underlying trends are arising that may help determine the path for the future. For example, geopolitical risks and emerging risks such as disinformation, mental health issues and cyber risks should be taken into account.

Anticipating change

While no one can predict the future, it is not inconceivable that by 2040 climate change will have a sobering impact on our daily lives, that inequality will threaten to reverse globalization and that health care will be driven by new technologies. The aim of strategic forecasting is to anticipate these changes and to be prepared for all possible future scenarios. How is your organisation preparing?

Would you like to delve deeper into the challenges of the future? We would be happy to exchange ideas with you and come up with solutions.